The NBA has become a 3-point shooting league to the point where it is hurting the product. Here is the data.
The trend (Source: Basketball Reference, NBA.com):
- In the 2003-04 season, teams averaged approximately 16 three-point attempts per game.
- In the 2023-24 season, teams averaged approximately 35 three-point attempts per game.
- That is a 120% increase in 20 years.
- The midrange game has been mathematically eliminated. Expected value analysis shows that a 40% 3-pointer (1.2 points per shot) is worth more than a 50% midrange (1.0 points per shot).
Why this is a problem:
- Homogeneity. Every team plays the same way: drive and kick for 3s, or shoot 3s off the dribble. The stylistic diversity that made the NBA interesting (Shaq's post game, Nash's 7-seconds-or-less, the Pistons' grind) has been replaced by one optimal strategy.
- Shot diet monotony. Fans watch the same types of shots over and over. The mid-range artistry of Kobe, MJ, and Dirk is being coached out of the game.
- Variance. 3-point shooting is inherently streaky. Games are decided by which team happens to get hot from three, not by sustained execution. This increases randomness in outcomes.
The counterargument:
- NBA scoring is at an all-time high. Fans say they want scoring.
- Players like Steph Curry have made 3-point shooting an art form. The logo 3 is an iconic shot.
- Analytics say the 3 is the optimal shot. You cannot argue with math.
Proposed changes:
- Move the 3-point line back 2 feet (to approximately 25'9")
- Widen the paint to discourage drive-and-kick
- Increase the value of the midrange by making the 3 harder
Sources:
- Basketball Reference — league-wide shooting data
- NBA.com — shot tracking data
- Cleaning the Glass — shot distribution analysis
The real issue is pace. Games have too many possessions, too many 3s, not enough halfcourt execution. Slow the pace and the midrange naturally becomes more valuable.